Rates don’t move in a straight line up or down and so rates have crept down since late 2018 even though there have been some patches where rates have gone up and I still firmly believe that rates are heading down but there will be some bumps in the road. This week is huge in terms of whether or not this will be the next leg lower in rates or another “bump” in the road.
-Tuesday: PCE Inflation is important because this is a key Fed data point that they look closely at and if there is ONE thing to remember is that higher inflation and/or perceived higher inflation is not good for mortgage rates. Year over year this is at 1.6% and so a number higher than this could cause rates to go up.
-Wednesday: ADP employment report last month showed an anemic 102k jobs created and this led the initial belief the Labor report was going to come in soft but it surprised to the upside and so generally these 2 reports mirror each other on average but sometimes month to month it can be vastly different. So this will give us a sneak preview of what to possibly expect for Friday’s report in terms of job growth but something higher than 180k might be problematic.
-Feds conclude their meeting and almost 100% they will lower rates by .25% although this is already priced into the markets. So remember that Feds cut the Fed Funds rate which is what member banks charge each other for overnight lending on their reserves and so a lower rate for banks mean lower credit card rates, car loans, business loans, equity lines, student loans, etc.
So just to confuse you even more this rate cut of .25% could make mortgage rates go up OR down depending on what is said in the Fed statement regarding WHY they did this.
Of course if by some small chance they don’t do anything OR lower rates by .50% then……………..I don’t even want to speculate as that would be tumultuous.
10 year treasury is also something to watch as many adjustables are pegged to this but again this isn’t directly tied to mortgage rates since treasuries are a debt instrument used to help our government pay our bills. But the same principle’s used by investors to buy or sell treasuries are the same as mortgage backed securities so this is why people tend to follow the 10 year (widely and easily available to track)
Mitch Lichterman
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