News

Mortgage Rates

Rates don’t move in a straight line up or down and so rates have crept down since late 2018 even though there have been some patches where rates have gone up and I still firmly believe that rates are heading down but there will be some bumps in the road. This week is huge in terms of whether or not this will be the next leg lower in rates or another “bump” in the road.

-Tuesday: PCE Inflation is important because this is a key Fed data point that they look closely at and if there is ONE thing to remember is that higher inflation and/or perceived higher inflation is not good for mortgage rates. Year over year this is at 1.6% and so a number higher than this could cause rates to go up.

-Wednesday: ADP employment report last month showed an anemic 102k jobs created and this led the initial belief the Labor report was going to come in soft but it surprised to the upside and so generally these 2 reports mirror each other on average but sometimes month to month it can be vastly different. So this will give us a sneak preview of what to possibly expect for Friday’s report in terms of job growth but something higher than 180k might be problematic.
-Feds conclude their meeting and almost 100% they will lower rates by .25% although this is already priced into the markets. So remember that Feds cut the Fed Funds rate which is what member banks charge each other for overnight lending on their reserves and so a lower rate for banks mean lower credit card rates, car loans, business loans, equity lines, student loans, etc.

So just to confuse you even more this rate cut of .25% could make mortgage rates go up OR down depending on what is said in the Fed statement regarding WHY they did this.

Of course if by some small chance they don’t do anything OR lower rates by .50% then……………..I don’t even want to speculate as that would be tumultuous.

10 year treasury is also something to watch as many adjustables are pegged to this but again this isn’t directly tied to mortgage rates since treasuries are a debt instrument used to help our government pay our bills. But the same principle’s used by investors to buy or sell treasuries are the same as mortgage backed securities so this is why people tend to follow the 10 year (widely and easily available to track)

Mitch Lichterman
310-478-4999 Direct
310-893-6462 Fax
mitch.lichterman Skype
Mitch@TargetRate.com
NLMS #274609
CA DRE #00977484
GA #56363
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Gross National Product

Here’s an interesting view of the world and the power or growth as indicated by Gross National Product

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reflects the output and income of a nation. It measures the production inside of a country no matter who makes it. It is supposed to represent a health of a nation

It measures consumption, investment, government plus the net of exports/imports and the net income earned by residents from overseas investments

For a confidential discussion about your personal finances please click on the link to schedule an appointment with Mitch

Mitch Lichterman
310-478-4999 Direct
310-893-6462 Fax
mitch.lichterman Skype
Mitch@TargetRate.com
NLMS #274609
CA DRE #00977484
GA #56363
WY #MBL-3140

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News

Market Update

Boy talk about a roller coaster as one day stocks are rallying and then the next they’re tanking. Same with rates as we’ll get improvement and then it gets worse along with the 10 year going up and down. If you had to name one thing that has triggered this roller coaster market? US-China trade “talks” as it’s been ongoing for awhile as one week it’ll be “imminent” and stocks then rally and rates go up and then the opposite.

Here’s a headline from an article “US -China Trade Talks Collapse”…………………do want to know the date of that article??? July 24, 2017 (yes that is 2017 or almost TWO YEARS ago!!!

Now really how much has this affected the markets is kind of difficult because the DOW is up about 15% from July 2017 but down about 5% from all-time high in October of 2018. So on one hand this trade “issue” has affected stocks on a day to day basis but not on a longer term because the market will focus on other things (jobs, economy, inflation, etc.).

So expect adjustable loans to be priced really well and don’t think that rates keep going down especially in this volatile market (DOW was down as much as 480 but finished around 280 and the 10 year was as low as 2.27% but finished at 2.33% but opened up at 2.39%!!

 

Inflation is low and the Feds keep saying this is “transitory” meaning they think it’s a temporary thing (inflation has been low for over a decade now) and just think about where the unemployment rate is and how many jobs being created albeit at ok growth and yet inflation has fallen?? With the job market this tight then usually inflation jacks up (tight labor market generally means wage inflation which then spurs higher retail prices, services, etc.) yet it’s not??? What people don’t realize is that we “import” a lot of products where prices are cheaper which of course keeps our prices lower.

This is also a reason why many of our industries have their products made and produced in other countries because labor and the cost of goods are lower than here.

To discuss your confidential scenario please click HERE to set an appointment.

Mitch Lichterman
310-478-4999 Direct
310-893-6462 Fax
mitch.lichterman Skype
Mitch@TargetRate.com
NLMS #274609
CA DRE #00977484
GA #56363
WY #MBL-3140

News

Rate Update

Unless you have been sleeping under a rock you probably know that rates have been trending down. To get a better perspective take a look at the last 12 months of the 10 year treasury.

Bonds are currently trading around 2.5%. This is down from 3% at the same time last year. Over the last 12 months the yields have fallen. This in spite of the treasury department scaling back buying up bonds to artificially stimulate the economy. This means rates are likely to remain near current levels.

Meanwhile Real Estate levels remain flat. In fact sales have supported the same value for nearly the last 10 years. Sales continue to hover State-wide around 35,000 per month.

Loan programs continue to grow more creative with new Stated Income programs hitting the market. To disucss your confidential scenario please CLICK HERE to send an appointment or email mitch@targetrate.com.

Lender Partner
Mitch Lichterman – Loan Originator-TargetRate.com
Phone:310-478-4999
NMLS#:274609
DRE#:01952045

News

MARKET UPDATE

Fed just concluded their 2 day meeting and as expected they kept the Fed funds rate the same but in their announcement they indicated no rate hikes for the rest of 2019 and they downgraded the economy outlook from 2.2% to 2.1% GDP. Keep in mind that the White House has been saying GDP will be at 3% so there’s a huge disconnect there. Inflation is totally muted both here and abroad.

In regards to the balance sheet for the Fed they indicated that in May they will only let $15 billion in Treasuries fall off the balance sheet and reinvesting the other $15 billion into treasuries (they are currently letting around $30 billion a month fall off the balance sheet so basically as of May they will cut that in half AND by Sept or October they will stop reducing their balance sheet on both treasuries and mortgage backed securities.

 

$20 billion in mortgage backed securities currently being run off each month until Sept or October so no reinvestment into more MBS.

Mortgage backed securities are rallying big time right now and the 10 year treasury is down to 2.54%.

If you have a question about mortgage rates or loans in general please schedule a consultation by clicking HERE.

Mitch Lichterman – Loan Originator-TargetRate.com
Phone:310-478-4999
NMLS#:274609
DRE#:01952045
Email:Mitch@TargetRate.com <mailto:Mitch@Okolia.com>
GA #56363
WY #MBL-3140

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